The objective of this article is to examine the relationship between technological progress and import substitution processes in the mining industry of the Russian Federation under the influence of international sanctions. A systemic analysis of the primary drivers of sectoral development is carried out, including state support instruments, mechanisms of interregional cooperation, the impact of foreign restrictions, and domestic innovation strategies. The methodological foundation of the study is a system of differential equations that enables quantitative assessment of the dynamics of enterprise-level technological development, accounting for changes in investment portfolios and external economic conditions. Within the modeling framework, an element-by-element analysis of the technological progress equation is applied, which makes it possible to identify key time lags and nonlinear dependencies between the volume of import substitution investments and their ultimate effectiveness. The empirical case of PJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel demonstrates practical aspects of employing the developed model to forecast technological trends and to formulate investment scenarios. It is established that when import substitution reaches 50% or more, a pronounced synergistic effect emerges, accelerating the overall rate of technological growth of enterprises in the industry. Based on the study results, practical recommendations and conclusions are formulated to optimize investment strategies and strengthen interregional cooperation, aimed at enhancing the competitiveness of Russian mining companies.