The article analyzes the current state of the housing construction market in the Russian Federation. The concept of "housing stock" has been clarified. The role of the state in the development of the market under study is substantiated. An overview of the most relevant methods of forecasting the housing construction market is given. Each of these approaches has its own characteristics and is applied depending on the goals, available data and time constraints. In practice, a combination of several approaches is often used to obtain more accurate and reliable forecasts. The authors used correlation and regression analysis tools to predict the market under study. The authors have identified the key factors influencing the commissioning of housing in the country. A model for forecasting the housing construction market has been developed and measures have been proposed to improve the current situation.