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The article presents a theoretical analysis of labor migration impact on forestry economic development. Based on the systematization of classical and contemporary migration theories, a conceptual model has been developed that describes direct and indirect effects of migration on the industry through changes in quantitative and qualitative characteristics of labor resources. It has been established that migration creates a fundamental contradiction between short-term economic benefits from cost reduction and long-term risks of technological stagnation. The paradoxes of cheap labor (availability of migrants reduces incentives for modernization) and substitution (use of migrant labor exacerbates labor shortages by reducing the industry's attractiveness) have been identified. A typology of migration influence is proposed, considering mediating factors at macro-, meso-, and micro-levels. Conceptual scenarios for forestry development under various migration regimes have been developed: depopulation, migration substitution, technological transformation, and sustainable development. The findings provide a methodological foundation for interdisciplinary analysis of migration in natural resource industries.
labor migration, forestry, economic development, migration theory, conceptual model, human capital, sectoral economics, natural resource industries
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