employee
employee
employee
The relevance of the research is due to global transformations in the energy sector related to the strengthening of the climate agenda, the development of renewable energy technologies and the acceleration of the fourth energy transition. Russia, which has significant reserves of fossil energy resources and a developed traditional energy sector, faces the need to balance between maintaining energy security and adapting to new international and environmental realities. The aim of the study is to determine the optimal structure of energy generation in Russia, taking into account economic, environmental and technological factors in the context of energy transition until 2050. The research uses methods of system analysis, comparative analysis, economic and mathematical modeling, cluster and multicriteria analysis, as well as forecasting based on energy balances and demographic indicators. The hypothesis of the study is that in the coming decades, renewable energy sources (RES) and nuclear power will become key components of the Russian energy system, complementing rather than completely replacing traditional sources such as gas and coal. The scientific novelty of the study consists in integrating up-to-date data on the structure of energy consumption and generation in the Russian Federation for 2021-2025, comparing the normalized cost of energy using modern methods and proposing a regionally differentiated model of energy development with an emphasis on the synergy between renewable energy sources and basic generation. The results of the study include: updated forecasts on the share of renewable energy sources, gas, coal and nuclear energy in the UES of Russia until 2050; identification of the economic competitiveness of solar and wind energy in certain regions; justification of the need to develop energy storage systems and smart grids. In conclusion, it is emphasized that a successful energy transition in Russia is impossible without government support, technological modernization and consideration of the geographical and climatic features of the country. Energy policy should be flexible, multi-level and focused on sustainable development.
fuel and energy complex, the fourth energy transition, renewable energy sources, nuclear energy, normalized energy cost, energy security, decarbonization, smart power grids
1. Basirov, M. B. Razvitie mirovogo toplivno-energeticheskogo kompleksa v usloviyah chetvertogo energeticheskogo perehoda // Innovacionnaya ekonomika: informaciya, analitika, prognozy. – 2024. – № 4. – S. 29–35.
2. Novak, A. Rossiyskiy i mirovoy TEK: vyzovy i perspektivy // Energeticheskaya politika. – 2022. – № 4 (170). – S. 6–15.
3. Hondoshko, Yu. V. Perspektivy razvitiya toplivno-energeticheskogo kompleksa Rossii // Vestnik Amurskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. – 2023. – № 103. – S. 77–79.
4. Ministerstvo energetiki RF. Otchet o funkcionirovanii EES Rossii v 2023 godu. – M., 2024.
5. Makarov, A. A. i dr. Sostoyanie i perspektivy razvitiya TEK Rossii // INEI RAN. – 2024.
6. Kulagin, V. A. i dr. Energeticheskie scenarii mira do 2050 goda // INEI RAN. – 2024.
7. Al'shraydeh, M., Engovatov, A. Zhiznennyy cikl AES: riski i upravlenie // Yadernaya energetika. – 2023.
8. Degtyarev, A. N. i dr. Ekonomicheskaya effektivnost' VIE v Rossii // Energetika. – 2016. – № 5.
9. Shema i programma razvitiya EES Rossii na 2019–2025 gody. URL: http://gost.gtsever.ru/
10. Plautz, J. Renewable Energy Outlook 2024 // IEA. – 2024.
11. IRENA. Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2023. – Abu Dhabi, 2024.
12. Magomadova, E. I. Istoricheskaya praktika rasshireniya TEK v Rossii // FGU Science. – 2022.
13. Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Levelized Cost of Electricity database. – 2024.
14. Putin, V. V. Poslanie Federal'nomu Sobraniyu. – 2024.
15. Rosseti. Koncepciya razvitiya sistem nakopleniya energii do 2030 g. – 2024.
16. Pravitel'stvo RF. General'naya shema razmescheniya ob'ektov elektroenergetiki do 2042 g. – Postanovlenie № 2345-r, 2023.
17. Moskovskiy energeticheskiy institut (MEI). Programmno-apparatnyy kompleks dlya integracii VIE. – 2023.
