Russian - Indian Trade: Toward Balance and Stability
Abstract and keywords
Abstract:
This article examines the dynamics and structural features of the Russian-Indian trade and economic partnership in 2023–2025 amid unprecedented sanctions pressure, the transformation of global supply chains, and the emergence of a multipolar global economic architecture. An analysis of foreign trade statistics reveals a persistent asymmetry in trade turnover. Risk factors for the further development of trade relations include unresolved issues of mutual settlements in national currencies, infrastructure constraints, and the special conditions for entering Indian markets (possibility of secondary sales, job creation, etc.). Special attention is given to the dynamics of the Urals crude oil discount, which decreased from 23.9% in 2022 to 8.1% in 2024. This allowed Russian companies to strengthen their position in the Indian market. However, the total savings at Indian refineries over three years reached $12.6 billion—directly lost revenue for the Russian budget. The article substantiates the need to transition from a raw materials-based export model to deeper industrial cooperation, liberalize access to the Indian market, accelerate the implementation of infrastructure projects within the North-South International Transport Corridor (INSTC), and develop joint mechanisms to protect against the extraterritorial application of sanctions. It is consistently argued that the implementation of these proposed areas will overcome structural imbalances and elevate bilateral cooperation to a qualitatively new level, consistent with the strategic interests of both countries.

Keywords:
Russian-Indian cooperation, sanctions restrictions, trade imbalance, balance, national currencies, tariff and non-tariff barriers, investment platforms
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References

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