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The educational process is subject to the influence of numerous random factors, so its modeling requires the use of the theory of random processes. This article develops a mathematical model for assessing the academic performance of a study group based on random functions. A multivariate Poisson flow of grades is used to model the flow of four types of student grades. A method for calculating the main characteristics of the random process is developed. To illustrate the developed method, a specific numerical example is considered, based on a simulation modeling in MS Excel of the process of receiving grades by a study group. To solve the forecasting problem, it is proposed to construct trend lines for each type of grade. The modeling results demonstrated very high quality of the constructed linear regression models (the determination coefficient is close to one). The characteristics of the random process for this example are calculated. The developed method can be used not only for the traditional five-point grading scale but also for other scales.
estimates, random process, flow intensity, multidimensional Poisson distribution, event, realization, vector
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