employee
employee
employee
The relevance of the study is due to increased geopolitical tensions, the expansion of sanctions pressure on the Russian economy and the need to ensure the technological and industrial sovereignty of the regions, including the Republic of Dagestan. In the context of a sharp reduction in the supply of imported products and components, starting in 2022, import substitution is shifting from a development strategy to a national security factor. The Republic of Dagestan, as a subject with a high level of dependence on imports in a number of industrial sectors, is faced with the need to review approaches to the diagnosis, forecasting and practical implementation of import substitution projects. The aim of the study is to update analytical and forecast estimates of import substitution in Dagestan's industry, taking into account data for 2021-2024, as well as to develop updated diagnostic and forecasting tools with an emphasis on technological independence and sustainable development. The research uses methods of system analysis, statistical modeling, comparative analysis, as well as methods of economic and mathematical modeling using the production function and index analysis. The results of the study include: updating the statistical database on the import dependence of Dagestan's industrial sectors; developing two analytical tables on the dynamics of import substitution by key sectors and on the level of technological sovereignty of enterprises.; substantiation of the hypothesis of a temporary "adaptive depression" during the introduction of domestic technologies and subsequent productivity growth; proposal of an updated set of diagnostic and forecasting indicators. In conclusion, it is emphasized that import substitution in Dagestan requires not only government support, but also institutional restructuring, integration of science, education and industry, as well as strengthening the role of digital platforms and regional innovation ecosystems.
import substitution, technological sovereignty, Dagestan industry, diagnostics, forecasting, economic security, innovation policy, production function
1. Akimova D. Sostoyanie i perspektivy importozamescheniya v rossiyskoy promyshlennosti // Upravlenie kachestvom. – 2023. – № 4. – S. 31–35.
2. Anisimova V. Yu. Osnovnye trendy operezhayuschego nauchno-tehnologicheskogo razvitiya promyshlennosti Rossii // Vestnik Samarskogo universiteta. Ekonomika i upravlenie. – 2024. – T. 15, № 3. – S. 69–86.
3. Baranov V.D. Ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost' i importozameschenie. – M.: Ekonomika, 2011.
4. Bodrunov S.D. Promyshlennaya politika i importozameschenie v Rossii. – SPb.: Izd-vo SPbGU, 2015.
5. Borovkova V.A., Tihanovich M.O. Metody ocenki importozavisimosti ekonomiki // Voprosy statistiki. – 2017. – № 5. – S. 44–51.
6. Vasil'eva L.V. Effektivnost' politiki importozamescheniya: regional'nyy aspekt // Regional'naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika. – 2017. – № 12. – S. 22–30.
7. Anischenko A.N. Importozameschenie kak faktor ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti // Finansy i kredit. – 2015. – № 18. – S. 35–42.
8. Animica E.G., Animica P.E., Glumov A.A. Innovacionnoe razvitie promyshlennosti v usloviyah importozamescheniya // Voprosy ekonomiki. – 2015. – № 9. – S. 78–90.
9. Seliverstov Yu.I., Chizhova E.N. Diagnostika innovacionnogo importozamescheniya // Innovacii. – 2022. – № 4. – S. 55–63.
10. Glaz'ev S.Yu. Ekonomicheskaya teoriya tehnologicheskogo razvitiya. – M.: Nauka, 2014.
11. Kleyner G.B. Ekonomicheskiy suverenitet v epohu globalizacii // Voprosy ekonomiki. – 2016. – № 7. – S. 4–18.
12. Naydenova E.M. Strategii obespecheniya ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti Rossii. – M.: IE RAN, 2014.
13. Rosstat. Promyshlennost' sub'ektov RF. Statisticheskiy sbornik. – M., 2024.
14. Minpromtorg RF. Otchet o realizacii gosprogrammy «Razvitie promyshlennosti». – 2023.
15. Davletshina I.V. Razvitie rossiyskoy obrabatyvayuschey promyshlennosti v usloviyah importozamescheniya // Vestnik universiteta. – 2023. – № 12. – S. 85–92.
16. Minekonomrazvitiya RD. Otchet o realizacii nacproektov v Dagestane. – Mahachkala, 2024.
17. Il'yasova K.H., Yandarbaeva L.A., Dadaeva H.S. Innovacionno-promyshlennaya politika v regionah // Ekonomika i predprinimatel'stvo. – 2021. – № 7. – S. 324–327.
18. Tyukavkin N.M., Anisimova V.Yu. Diagnosticheskaya karta parametrov importozamescheniya // Razvitie i bezopasnost'. – 2024. – № 1. – S. 33–45.
19. Pogodina T.V. Ocenka deyatel'nosti promyshlennyh kompaniy v celyah sovershenstvovaniya politiki importozamescheniya // Innovacii i investicii. – 2025. – № 3. – S. 410–414.
20. Frolov I.E., Borisov V.N., Ganichev N.A. Konceptual'nye osnovy prognozirovaniya innovacionno-investicionnogo processa // Nauchnye trudy INP RAN. – 2023. – T. 21, № 4. – S. 106–131.
