The use of economic-statistical research methods is a necessary condition for the timely identification of structural imbalances in the revenue base of regional budgets and, consequently, for minimizing the operational and budgetary risks of treasury bodies. The article examines the methodology of combining V.M. Ryabtsev's structural shift index with trend analysis tools for statistical assessment of changes in the budget revenue structure as a characteristic of the operating conditions of treasury bodies. The choice of a three-component revenue grouping is justified, and the results are interpreted in terms of cash flow predictability of budget streams. Based on publicly available data on the revenue execution of the Stavropol Krai budget for 2020-2024, cumulative and year-on-year series of the indicator are calculated. The calculations reveal a structural shock in 2021-2022, driven by a significant share of interbudgetary transfers in the total revenue of the regional budget. Statistical calculations establish the presence of a stable linear trend, indicating the temporary nature of the negative structural deviation. Based on the findings, the author formulates recommendations for applying the method in the analytical practice of regional offices of the Federal Treasury.
treasury system; Ryabtsev index; structural shifts; budget revenue structure; regional budget; transfer dependency; coefficient of variation; Stavropol Krai; cash planning; budget execution
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