The article presents an economic assessment of the consequences of certification delays of the LMS-901 Baikal light multipurpose aircraft for the regional aviation fleet renewal programme of the Russian Federation. The relevance of the topic is determined by repeated postponements of certification deadlines from 2023 to 2026, as well as by the massive retirement of the obsolete An-2 fleet and other aircraft, which creates a risk of capacity shortage on local airlines. The aim of the study is to develop a computational model that quantitatively links the certification calendar shift of the LMS-901 with three economic channels: postponement of the manufacturer's revenue, formation of a capacity deficit and the need for additional budget subsidies. The paper proposes an integral indicator of the certification delay cost based on net present value, risk-adjustment by probability of certification completion and a sensitivity index. The scientific novelty lies in the formalisation of the link between aircraft certification readiness and regional route network sustainability. The practical significance consists in applying the proposed methodology when forming budget subsidies, leasing rates and a transitional An-2 fleet recovery plan.
LMS-901 Baikal, regional aviation, small aviation, certification, aircraft life cycle, regional flights subsidization, import substitution, risk adjustment, net present value, An-2 fleet
1. Rosteh: k 2030 godu v Rossii budut vypuskat' do 96 novyh passazhirskih samoletov v god. — Tekst: elektronnyy // iXBT.com. — 24.10.2025. — URL: https://www.ixbt.com/news/2025/10/24/2030-96-114-300-214-21.html (data obrascheniya: 24.04.2026).
2. Sertifikaciya samoleta «Baykal» ozhidaetsya v 2026 godu. — Tekst : elektronnyy // Interfaks. — 14.05.2025. — URL: https://www.interfax.ru/russia/1025678 (data obrascheniya: 24.04.2026).
3. V UZGA zayavili o planah sertificirovat' samolet LMS-901 «Baykal» do konca 2026 goda. — Tekst : elektronnyy // Aviaciya Rossii. — 15.05.2025. — URL: https://aviation21.ru/v-uzga-zayavili-o-planax-sertificirovat-samolyot-lms-901-bajkal-do-konca-2026-goda/ (data obrascheniya: 24.04.2026).
4. Rossiyskuyu regional'nuyu aviaciyu zhdut masshtabnoe obnovlenie parka i povyshenie mer bezopasnosti. — Tekst : elektronnyy // Aviaciya Rossii. — 08.10.2025. — URL: https://aviation21.ru/rossijskuyu-regionalnuyu-aviaciyu-zhdut-masshtabnoe-obnovlenie-parka-i-povyshenie-mer-bezopasnosti/ (data obrascheniya: 24.04.2026).
5. Razrabotchik ocenil stoimost' samoleta «Baykal» v predelah 340 mln rubley. — Tekst : elektronnyy // Interfaks. — 28.05.2025. — URL: https://www.interfax.ru/russia/1028185 (data obrascheniya: 24.04.2026).
6. Samolet «Baykal» predlozhili pokupat' po cene pochti vtroe vyshe bazovoy. — Tekst : elektronnyy // RBK. — 19.08.2024. — URL: https://www.rbc.ru/business/19/08/2024/66bee2ec9a79470a191c6de3 (data obrascheniya: 24.04.2026).
7. Postanovlenie Pravitel'stva Rossiyskoy Federacii ot 25.12.2013 № 1242 «O predostavlenii subsidiy iz federal'nogo byudzheta organizaciyam vozdushnogo transporta na osuschestvlenie regional'nyh vozdushnyh perevozok passazhirov na territorii Rossiyskoy Federacii i formirovanie regional'noy marshrutnoy seti» (s izmeneniyami). — Tekst : elektronnyy // Oficial'nyy internet-portal Pravitel'stva Rossiyskoy Federacii. — URL: http://government.ru/docs/all/129360/ (data obrascheniya: 24.04.2026).
8. Stoimost' samoleta «Baykal» zafiksirovali na urovne 280 mln rubley. — Tekst : elektronnyy // Aviaciya Rossii. — 03.04.2025. — URL: https://aviation21.ru/stoimost-samolyota-bajkal-zafiksirovali-na-urovne-280-mln-rublej/ (data obrascheniya: 24.04.2026).
9. Transport v detalyah. Regional'naya aviaciya. — Tekst : elektronnyy // PAO «GTLK». — URL: https://www.gtlk.ru/press_room/transport-v-detalyakh/transport-v-detalyakh-regionalnaya-aviatsiya/ (data obrascheniya: 24.04.2026).
10. Razrabotchik An-2 predlozhil vosstanovit' letnuyu godnost' 700 prostaivayuschih samoletov. — Tekst : elektronnyy // Forbes. — 13.04.2026. — URL: https://www.forbes.ru/biznes/559076-razrabotcik-an-2-predlozil-vosstanovit-letnuu-godnost-700-prostaivausih-samoletov (data obrascheniya: 24.04.2026).
