The article is devoted to the quantitative assessment of the economic risks arising from the introduction of lithium-ion energy storage systems (SNES) to equalize the daily load schedules of industrial facilities, including civil aviation enterprises and airport infrastructure. Based on real hourly consumption data, a deterministic cash flow model has been built that takes into account technical constraints, charge-discharge strategies, and degradation of battery cells. Using Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations), a probabilistic distribution of net present value (NPV) was obtained and key risk metrics were estimated: the average NPV was -1.2 million rubles, the probability of a positive outcome was 32%, and the Value at Risk (95%) was an excess of 4.0 million rubles. It is shown that in a realistic tariff range, the project is characterized by moderate economic attractiveness, while an unfavorable change in tariff policy or accelerated degradation of cells can make investments unprofitable. Practical recommendations for reducing risks are proposed: phased implementation with a pilot project, the choice of lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, the formation of a reserve fund and the receipt of subsidies or tax deductions. Control indicators have been formulated (tariff spread of more than 4 rubles/kWh, guaranteed battery life of at least 10 years), with simultaneous implementation of which the project can become payback.
electric power storage systems, lithium-ion modules, load graph smoothing, industrial enterprises, civil aviation, economic risks, simulation modeling, Monte Carlo method, scenario analysis, net present value
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